Weight Loss Projections

I don't like to set "goals" that are focused on how much weight I'll lose by X date (in fact, I already wrote a post about this). I think it's unrealistic because people usually start with a significant date (like their anniversary, wedding, birthday, etc.) and decide they need to be a certain weight by then.

I think what I do is a bit different. I like to do projections of how much weight I'm likely to lose if I stay on program for a given amount of time. I'm usually very conservative in these projections, expecting to lose 0.8-1 pound on average per week (reasonable I think since when I was on program I was losing 1.2 lbs. on average and because healthy weight loss is between 0.5-2 lbs.).

Projections are different because I am projecting a healthy weight loss and I am starting with what's realistic, not what I would like (I would like to be 120 by Labor Day, but that's not going to happen).

I just did some projections from my current weight of 140 (as of Saturday). I have 5 pounds to make my WW goal and stop paying (which I really want to do, for economic reasons). Assuming I stay on program, I know I can lose an average of 0.8 lbs. per week, which would make it possible to reach goal around September 27 or October 4. There's our European vacation in there, which may derail things. So there's a reason to work really hard during vacation.

The next goal is to be 125, which I think will be approximately 20-25% body fat. Assuming I stay on program all that time, at an average loss of 0.8, the earliest I could reach that goal is Dec. 20, though probably more likely the next week's weigh in: Dec. 27. Now these projections aren't going to be as good because it's even further in the future. But it gives me a kick in the butt--if and only if--I stay on program from now until the end of the year, I could be at my personal goal.

November 11, 2008 will be my 2-year anniversary on Weight Watchers. It would be wonderful to at least be at my WW goal by then. I know I can do that.

Part of me can't believe I'm not there yet, in fact, since I was/am at 139/140 in the second picture at right back in December 2007. So I have basically maintained, all things considered, since then. I want to say: "What a waste of time!" But it hasn't been. I've been learning how to maintain, even without trying too hard. But now, the time to learn to maintain is over--at least for a bit--I am back in losing mode, which means a bit more deprivation, but also getting back to fit into my clothes without being uncomfortable again. So here we go!

Restaurant List

Six weeks into my summer program and I have never paid for my own lunch on a workday (I've also never skipped lunch). There's been a few sandwhich lunches but for the most part, they have been in very nice restaurants downtown. Below is an almost (but not quite) exhaustive list.

Through a lot of running and biking, I've maintained my initial 4 pound gain, so that I've been holding steady at 139 or so. I'm not trying to lose at this point, just stay the same.

Setting weight loss goals ("I want to lose x pounds by x date")

I just don't believe in them. I think a few people will reach these goals, if they're realistic (within 0.5-2 pounds per week on average). But most people will be disappointed that they won't have lost enough, that halfway through their months of trying to lose they are "behind" in reaching their goal. Lots of those people will quit.

It's just so unnecessary. When I started losing, I had a dream that I would be down 50 pounds in one year (at a healthy average weight loss of 0.96 pounds per week). However, I figured that even if I lost 26 pounds that whole year (1/2 pound per week on average), I would be a lot lighter than I was the year before. Frankly, I was just thankful not to be gaining! It took me a little bit over thirteen months to get to 50 pounds, and it has been very slow since then.

I think the best goals you can set as you're trying to lose weight are the ones you can control. Things like: I will exercise 3xs this week, or I will get 8 servings of fruits and veggies each day this week, or I will drink 96 oz of water each day this week. We know that if we do these things our body eventually will drop the pounds, but we really have no control over how fast that happens.

Whenever I see people posting that they have a particular # of pounds to lose by a certain date, I think, I hope you're the one person who doesn't quit way before that, or who doesn't get there then gain it all back, but that's what will happen to the majority of people who are in such a hurry to lose weight that they gained over years and years of bad habits.

Okay, off my soap box now. Here are some pictures I just took, wearing the size 16 Gap jeans I wore to my very first Weight Watchers meeting (and boy were they tight then!)